AFL 2023 Round 6 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

By:
James Salmon
25/04/2023
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 6
AFL 2023 Round 6

After the success of the inaugural Gather Round, the AFL returns to normal this weekend with a slate of nine games set to take place all around the country. It starts in Perth with an intriguing clash between the Dockers and the Bulldogs, before heading to Adelaide for a Port vs West Coast matchup on Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will play host to a Grand Final rematch between the Cats and the Swans in Geelong, before the round concludes with a couple of huge games; the ANZAC Day Eve blockbuster between the Tigers and Demons, and a massive ANZAC Day Clash between the Bombers and Magpies. Check out all you need to know about this round of footy below.

Round 6 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Dockers vs BulldogsFriday April 21st, 8.10pm$1.77$2.05
Power vs EaglesSaturday April 22nd, 1.45pm$1.07$8.50
Giants vs LionsSaturday April 22nd, 4.35pm$3.50$1.30
Cats vs SwansSaturday April 22nd, 7.25pm$1.50$2.60
Hawks vs CrowsSunday April 23rd, 1.10pm$3.50$1.30
Blues vs SaintsSunday April 23rd, 3.20pm$1.80$2.00
Suns vs KangaroosSunday April 23rd, 4.40pm$1.29$3.60
Demons vs TigersMonday April 24th, 7.20pm$1.35$3.25
Magpies vs BombersTuesday April 25th, 3.20pm$1.50$2.60

Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs

With a quarter and a half to go in their Round 5 clash with the Suns, things were looking pretty grim for the Dockers. They were staring down the barrel of a 1-4 start after winning 15 games, down by four goals and struggling to stop Gold Coast from scoring. Finally, however, they found a switch to flick, scoring three goals in a row to end the third quarter and then outscoring the Suns 29-13 in the final quarter to earn a much-needed come-from-behind win. This Friday night, they’ll try to win consecutive games for the first time this season when they host the Bulldogs in Perth. The Doggies had an impressive two-game winning streak snapped by the Power last weekend, going down 70-56 in a tough-fought contest which took their record to 2-3; the same as the Dockers. This is a big game for both teams, each of whom have finals aspirations. A 3-3 record feels very different to a 2-4 one, and on their home turf, the Dockers can square their ledger with a solid win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dockers -2.5$1.90
Dockers 21+$3.00
Dockers to win$1.82

Predicted Squads

Fremantle DockersFremantle DockersB: B. Cox, A. Pearce, H. Young HB: J. Clark, L. Ryan, C. Wagner C: J. Aish, M. Johnson, S. Sturt HF: M. Walters, L. Jackson, B. Banfield F: L. Schultz, J. Amiss, M. Frederick FOLL: S. Darcy, A. Brayshaw, C. Serong I/C: B. Walker, E. Hughes, W. Brodie, J. O’Meara

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: J. Johannisen, L. Jones, C. Daniel HB: B. Dale, T. O’Brien, E. Richards C: O. Baker, M. Bontempelli, B. Williams HF: M. Hannan, J. Ugle-Hagan, C. Weightman F: A. Jones, A. Naughton, R. Lobb FOLL: T. English, T. Liberatore, A. Treloar I/C: T. Duryea, B. Khamis, J. Macrae, A. Scott

Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

It’s been an interesting start to the season for the Power, but after defeating the Bulldogs last weekend they are beginning to loom as a more threatening side in 2023 than they were last year. After beating the Lions in Round 1 they suffered two big losses to really bring them back to earth, but since then they’ve impressively beaten the Swans in Sydney and then the Dogs, and with a matchup in Adelaide against the Eagles in Round 6 they should have no issues taking their record to 4-2. The Eagles did well to limit the damage against the Cats to 47 points last week, but realistically the game had the feeling of a 100-point defeat if Geelong really wanted to flex their muscle. The Eagles are a subpar team to start with, and with a disastrous injury list to deal with there’s little scope for them to be competitive against most sides any time soon. The Power aren’t the Cats and probably can’t afford to take their foot off the pedal to the same extent that Geelong did last week and still win by eight goals, but nonetheless they should be able to earn themselves a percentage boosting win on Saturday afternoon.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power 25+$1.35
Power over 112.5 points$1.85
Power -45.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: A.Aliir, R.Burton, T.McKenzie HB: D.Byrne-Jones, X.Duursma, D.Houston C: T.Boak, W.Drew, M.Bergman HF: J.McEntee, D.Williams, S.Powell-Pepper F: J.Rioli, C.Dixon, T.Marshall FOLL: S.Lycett, C.Rozee, Z.Butters I/C: K.Farrell, J.Horne-Francis, O.Wines, J.Finlayson

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: A.Witherden, T.Barrass, L.Duggan HB: J.Jones, J.Rotham, J.Hunt C: G.Clark, T.Kelly, A.Gaff HF: N.Long, J.Darling, L.Edwards F: S.Petrevski-Seton, O.Allen, J.Waterman FOLL: B.Williams, L. Shuey, R.Ginbey I/C: B.Hough, J.Petruccelle, X.O’Neill, J.Culley

GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions

After three consecutive close losses the Giants found themselves in yet another tight battle last weekend, but this time around they were able to get the points. And just as well, too; a loss to the Hawks would have been a huge disappointment for a side which, under new coach Adam Kingsley, has at least shown some glimpses of improvement so far this year. They’ll likely need to show more than just glimpses against the Lions this weekend, though having said that Brisbane have struggled away from home at times this year. Last weekend was an exception as they thrashed the Kangaroos in Adelaide in Gather Round, but prior to that they’d beaten the Pies and Dees in Brisbane – and both quite comfortably – but been smashed by the Power and beaten by the Dogs on the road. That trend will give the Giants some hope, but even if they can keep it competitive for a large portion of this game, it’s hard to imagine them getting the four points.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions/Lions half-time/full-time$1.57
Lions 1-39$2.00
Lions to win$1.30

Predicted Squads

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, I.Cumming HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash                      C: F.Callaghan, J.Kelly, D.Lloyd HF: A.Kennedy, H.Himmelberg, A. Cadman F: T.Greene, J.Hogan, J.Peatling FOLL: M.Flynn, C. Ward, S.Coniglio I/C: N.Haynes, C.Hamilton, H. Rowston, X.O’Halloran

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: Starcevich, Payne, Joyce HB: McKenna, Andrews, Rich C: Ashcroft, Bailey, Berry HF: Cameron, Rayner, McCluggage F: Zorko, Daniher, Hipwood FOLL: McInerney, Dunkley, Neale I/C: McCarthy, Coleman, Fort, Wilmot

  • Harking back to 2006, the Magpies have a 12-4 advantage over the Bombers on ANZAC Day.
  • The Eagles have given up 136 and 126 points in their last two games.
  • Jack Lukosius has only kicked three or more goals once in five games this year, but that was three weeks ago and he kicked 1.4 last week. He’s getting the opportunities and that should continue against North – he just needs to kick straight.

Multi of the Week

LegsOdds
Magpies to win$1.50
Power to score over 112.5 points$1.90
Jack Lukosius to kick 3+ goals$3.40
Bet $10 for $96.90 with PlayUp

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans

Come Saturday night, the eyes of the football world will be on the Grand Final rematch when Geelong hosts Sydney at GMHBA Stadium. Of course, we all remember what happened last year, when the young Sydney side was no match for the experience of Geelong, and an 81-point deficit was the result. This time around the Cats have even more of an advantage with the game being played at their cauldron of a home ground, though their form thus far this year has not exactly been what it was throughout the back of half of 2022. They lost their first three of the year and were struggling at halftime in Round 4 against the Hawks, though they subsequently went on to kick 15 goals to one in the second half of that game and then hold off the Eagles without stepping out of first gear last week. The Swans have had their difficulties to start the year too, with consecutive losses to first the Dees and then the Pies nullifying their two big wins to start the year, but they returned to the winners’ list against the Tigers last year. For all their concerns to start the season, both of these teams have still looked very good at their best, and should once again be competing at the pointy end of the season. On Saturday night, however, the Swans will need to pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat given the game is being played in Geelong. Kardinia Park has been almost impossible to come away from with a win for years for visitors, and the Cats can keep that turned going with a hard-fought win this weekend.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats -12.5$1.90
Cats 1-39$2.05
Cats to win$1.50

Predicted Squads

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: S.De Koning, E.Ratugolea, Z.Tuohy HB: J.Kolodjashnij, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie C: I.Smith, M.Blicavs, M.Duncan HF: G. Rohan, T.Hawkins, J.Cameron F: O.Henry, P.Dangerfield, B.Close FOLL: J. Ceglar, C.Guthrie, M.Holmes I/C: J.Bowes, G.Miers, M.O’Connor, T.Atkins

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: Campbell, Fox, Cunningham HB: Florent, Lloyd, Blakey C: Stephens, Mills, McInerney HF: Gulden, Hayward, Warner F: Heeney, McLean, Papley FOLL: Ladhams, Parker, Rowbottom I/C: Warner, Roberts, Gould, McDonald

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows

Wins are going to be rare for the Hawks this year, but last week they went agonisingly close to securing their second of the year. A Jarman Impey shot would have won it with just seconds to go, but a touch on the line resigned them to their fourth loss in five games and kept them stuck on the bottom of the ladder. Over the past few years this would have loomed as a winnable game for them, but the Crows’ form over the first few weeks of this season suggests that may not be the case any longer. Wins against Port Adelaide and then Fremantle were impressive, but there were still plenty doubting just how legitimate this apparent improvement was for the Crows. After demolishing the Blues by 56 points in front of the eyes of the nation last Thursday night, however, the number of those doubters has been significantly reduced. Jordan Dawson has transformed into a legitimate star of the competition while Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine aren’t far behind, and all of a sudden the Crows look electric. Given their youth it wouldn’t be a surprise to see their form yoyo a little this year, but it’s impossible to tip against them in this one considering how well they’ve been playing. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Crows -22.5$1.90
Darcy Fogarty to kick 3+ goals$1.83
Crows to win$1.30

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn HawksHawthorn Hawks: B: J.Sicily, S.Frost, C.Jiath HB: H.Morrison, B.Hardwick, J.Impey C: K.Amon, J.Newcombe, J.Ward HF: C. Mackenzie, L. Breust, T.Brockman F: C.Macdonald, F.Greene, D.Moore FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Worpel, C.Nash I/C: S.Mitchell, L.Meek, D.Grainger-Barras, N.Long

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: Doedee, Murray, Michalanney HB: Smith, Butts, Hinge C: Dawson, Laird, Sholl HF: Rankine, Thilthorpe, Sloane F: Walker, Fogarty, Murphy FOLL: O’Brien, Rachele, Soligo I/C: Jones, Milera, McAdam, Keays

Carlton Blues vs St. Kilda Saints

The Blues and the Saints is, for Round 6 at least, a top four clash in 2023. Given how long it’s taken the Blues to work their way up the ladder, and how the Saints looked last year, that’s tough to believe, but here we are. Up until last weekend these were the only two undefeated sides in the league, but that came to an end for both during Gather Round – albeit in vastly different fashions. The Blues were completely outclassed by Adelaide on Thursday night, going down by nearly ten goals in a game they entered as narrow favourites and in what was comfortably their worst performance of the year. The Saints also lost, but they were gallant against the Magpies and retained hold of their spot on top of the ladder and a comfortably league-leading percentage of 144.1%. Ross Lyon has well and truly reminded everyone of how good a coach he is, with his defensive nous particularly evident; the Saints have conceded just 297 points this year, nearly 100 less than anyone else. They’ll make Carlton’s potent forward line work for their spoils, but there’s no denying that the Blues have the more talented team, at least at the top-end. This will be a high-quality game, but while the Saints are certainly capable of winning, it’s the Blues who can return to the winners’ list.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues to win$1.80
Blues 1-39$2.33
Blues -1.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: Young, Weitering, McGovern HB: Cowan, McGovern, Newman C: Cerra, Cripps, O’Brien HF: Fisher, McKay, Silvagni F: E.Curnow, C.Curnow, Motlop FOLL: De Koning, Hewett, Walsh I/C: Acres, Kennedy, Durdin, Pittonet

St. Kilda St. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: L.Stocker, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, J. Steele, R.Byrnes HF: M.Phillipou, B.Hill, J.Higgins F: M.Owens, J.Gresham, T. Membrey FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, H.Clark I/C: D.Butler, M.Windhager, S. Ross, B.Paton

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Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

Stewy Dew has had some important games in his coaching career, but this one would have to be right up there as the most significant he’s ever coached. In his sixth year in charge the Suns are once again struggling, winning just one of their first five games after challenging for the finals last season. At some point, something has to give; the Suns need to either compete for a spot in the finals, or Dew will be gone sooner rather than later. If they can’t beat the Kangaroos, the alarm bells will be ringing loudly in his ears. The Roos, of course, started the year in impressive fashion under new coach Alastair Clarkson, winning their first two games, but three consecutive losses – the latest of which was by 75 points to the Lions – have seen them come thudding back to earth. They certainly look like a better side this year than the historically bad one they were in 2022, but they’re still a bottom four side. The Suns absolutely have to win this game, and they should be able to do exactly that.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Suns to win$1.29
Jack Lukosius to kick 3+ goals$3.40
Suns -22.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: Weller, Collins, Macpherson HB: Long, Ballard, Powell C: Ellis, Miller, Lukosius HF: Ainsworth, Chol, Rosas F: Holman, King, Swallow FOLL: Witts, Rowell, Anderson I/C: Andrew, Fiorini, Lemmens, Humphrey

North Melbourne North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: Logue, McKay, Corr HB: Ziebell, McDonald, Scott C: Tucker, Cunnington, Shiels HF: Stephenson, Comben, Greenwood F: Zurhaar, Larkey, Sheezel FOLL: Goldstein, Davies-Uniacke, Phillips I/C: Curtis, Powell, Taylor, Turner

Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers

The now-annual ANZAC Day Eve clash between the Demons and Tigers has conveniently pitted two of the best teams of recent years against one another since its inception, but this will be a real litmus test for Richmond to see whether they can still claim to be anywhere near that category. The Dees certainly can, even if they were surprisingly upset by the Bombers last weekend. They’ve won three of their first five games and each of those wins has been by 50+ points, one of those being against the Swans and another the Dogs. They haven’t had quite the consistency that they would have liked over the first five weeks, but nonetheless they remain, alongside Collingwood, the Premiership favourites. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been gradually tumbling down the list of Premiership candidates. After a draw against the Blues in Round 1 and a win against the Crows the next week which now stacks up pretty well, they’ve lost three on the trot, and in their loss to the Swans last weekend they looked nothing like the Tigers of old. They were undisciplined, their skills were woeful, and though in each of their last couple of games they’ve had periods during which they’ve looked unstoppable, those periods have been few and far between. If they can find a way to put it together for longer they could take it up to the Demons, but that hasn’t really happened yet this year. This will be the ultimate test for their new midfield coming up against the likes of Oliver and Petracca, but while Hopper and Taranto have made them a little more competitive in the contest, they won’t be able to go with the Dees.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons/Demons half-time/full-time$1.51
Demons 1-39$2.00
Demons to win$1.33

Predicted Squads

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: Lever, May, McVee HB: Bowey, McDonald, Petty C: Brayshaw, Oliver, Hunter HF: Chandler, Fritsch, Neal-Bullen F: Spargo, Brown, Pickett FOLL: Grundy, Viney, Petracca I/C: Rivers, Sparrow, Langdon, van Rooyen

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: Balta, Young, Grimes HB: Baker, Vlastuin, Rioli C: McIntosh, Prestia, Pickett HF: Bolton, Sonsie, Mansell F: Cumberland, Martin, Riewoldt FOLL: Ryan, Taranto, Hopper I/C: Short, Ralphsmith, Clarke, Ross

Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers

The ANZAC Day Clash between the Magpies and the Bombers has thrown up some brilliant finishes over the years, but with the Pies entering the year as Premiership contenders and the Dons reeling from a disastrous 2023, that didn’t look like being the case this year. But the Bombers have, under new coach Brad Scott, quickly looked to prove the doubters wrong in 2023, winning four of their first five including a rousing defeat of the Demons last weekend. The Magpies, meanwhile, haven’t taken a step backwards like many expected after their extraordinary season last year, and instead appear to have improved significantly. With Nick Daicos leading the charge as perhaps the best player in the league in just his second year, they have looked as good as anyone this year, though in the last fortnight they have lost to the Lions and then just held off the Saints last weekend. Still, they have looked very hard to stop in most games this year. This should be a high-intensity game in front of close to 100,000 people and if the Bombers play like they did last weekend it could easily go down to the wire, but the Magpies are Premiership favourites for a reason and should be too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipsOdds
Magpies -13.5$1.90
Magpies 1-39$2.05
Magpies to win$1.45

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies : B: I. Quaynor, B. Frampton, B. Maynard HB: J. Noble, D.  Moore, S. Pendlebury C: S. Sidebottom, J. Crisp, J. Daicos HF: B.  Hill, B. Mihocek, N. Daicos F: J. De Goey, A. Johnson, J.  Elliott FOLL: A. Begg, J. De Goey, T.Mitchell I/C: B. McCreery, W. Hoskin-Elliott, J.Ginnivan, O.Markov

EssendonEssendon Bombers: B: Redman, Zerk-Thatcher, Ridley HB: Kelly, Laverde, McGrath C: Heppell, Merrett, Durham HF: Menzie, Jones, Parish F: Perkins, Stringer, Martin FOLL: Draper, Caldwell, Shiel I/C: Langford, Snelling, Setterfield, Phillips

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