AFL 2023 Round 9 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 9
AFL 2023 Round 9

Round 9 of the AFL season kicks off with a rare Friday night double-header, though it’s safe to say that most eyes will be on the first of the two matches, with the Tigers hosting the Cats at the MCG. Saturday will see a few potentially one-sided matchups on the cards, though the evening should be an entertaining one with the Lions facing the Bombers and the Blues taking on the Dogs. The round concludes with an intriguing Sunday which will see the Crows host the Saints, before the Magpies take on the Giants later in the afternoon. Check out all of our match previews and tips for this big round of footy below.

Round 9 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Tigers vs CatsFriday the 12th of May at 7.20pm$3.40$1.32
Eagles vs SunsFriday the 12th of May at 8.40pm$3.50$1.30
Swans vs DockersSaturday the 13th of May at 1.45pm$1.29$3.60
Kangaroos vs PowerSaturday the 13th of May at 2.10pm$5.00$1.17
Hawks vs Demons Saturday the 13th of May at 4.35pm$7.50$1.09
Lions vs BombersSaturday the 13th of May at 7.25pm$1.25$4.00
Blues vs BulldogsSaturday the 13th of May at 7.30pm$2.00$1.80
Crows vs SaintsSunday the 14th of May at 1.10pm$1.65$2.25
Magpies vs GiantsSunday the 14th of May at 4.40pm$1.15$5.50

Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats

Both the Tigers and the Cats have enjoyed the ultimate success over the past few years, and on Friday night they’ll open up Round 9 with a huge Friday night clash at the MCG. Both sides entered the year among the Premiership favourites, but the Tigers have thus far failed to deliver on expectations, losing five games in a row after Round 2 to fall into the bottom three. Last Saturday, they were given what is essentially a free four points at the moment courtesy of a matchup with the Eagles, and while they didn’t set the world alight they did prove far too good in the second half, and were able to earn their second win of the season. This Friday night, we’ll find out if they’ve been able to derive the confidence of which they are currently so devoid up against arguably the best team in the business. The Cats are only in sixth place with a 5-3 record, but they’ve won all five of those games in the last five weeks and have a whopping percentage of 135.7%. Their latest win was a comfortable 98-72 defeat over the Crows, just another notch in the belt of a reigning premier which is increasingly looming as a near certainty to once again find their way deep into September. The way they’ve been playing there are very few sides in the league capable of matching it with them, and though the Tigers are a lot better than their ladder position currently indicates, they will need to play their best game of the year by some way to knock off the Cats. If they do bring their best they can make this an entertaining game, but the Cats should prove too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats to win$1.32
Cats by 1-39$2.00
Over 170.5 total match points$1.87

Predicted Squads

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Broad, D.Grimes, N.Balta HB: D.Rioli, N.Vlastuin, L.Baker C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: M.Pickett, D.Prestia, J.Graham F: S.Ryan, D.Martin, J.Riewoldt FOLL: B.Miller, J.Hopper, S.Bolton I/C: J.Short, T. Cotchin, H.Ralphsmith, J.Clarke

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: M.O’Connor, E.Ratugolea, Z.Guthrie HB: J.Kolodjashnij, T.Stewart, Z.Tuohy C: I.Smith, M.Blicavs, M.Duncan HF: O.Henry, J.Cameron, T.Bruhn F: G.Miers, T.Hawkins, G. Rohan FOLL: J.Ceglar, M.Holmes, B. Parfitt I/C: J.Bews, T.Atkins, M.Knevitt, S.Simpson

West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns

The Eagles continue to rack up the losses, and based on their performances over the past few weeks that doesn’t look like changing anytime soon. Their latest defeat was a 46-point loss to the out of form Tigers, and they’ll now return home for a rare Friday night appearance at Optus Stadium. It’s not expected that any of their big names who are out through injury will return this weekend, and with the team they’re likely to put out it’s tough to imagine them beating many sides in the league. The Suns are certainly one who, if all goes well, they could challenge, particularly in Perth, but unfortunately for them Gold Coast have actually been playing pretty well of late. After a comfortable win over the Kangaroos they beat the Tigers two weeks ago, before last week getting within five points of the Demons. In comparison, the Eagles look like an easy kill for the Suns, who can get to 4-5 with a win this weekend. They’ve managed to alleviate some of the pressure that was building earlier in the season with a strong few weeks, though if they can’t get past the Eagles it will begin to mount once again. With the way the Eagles are playing, however, they shouldn’t have any problems earning their third win in four weeks.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Suns to win$1.30
Suns 40+$3.25
Suns -20.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: J.Rotham, T.Barrass, L.Duggan HB: J.Jones, S.Hurn, A.Witherden C: R.Ginbey, T.Kelly, J.Hunt HF: X.O’Neill, J.Darling, L.Edwards F: J.Petruccelle, O.Allen, J.Waterman FOLL: B.Williams, D.Sheed, A.Gaff I/C: C. Chesser, C.West, H. Edwards, S. Petrevski-Seton

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: S.Lemmens, S.Collins, L. Weller HB: D.Macpherson, C.Ballard, W.Powell C: B.Fiorini, D.Swallow, B.Ellis HF: T.Berry, J.Lukosius, M.Rosas F: B.Humphrey, B.King, M.Chol FOLL: J.Witts, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: R.Atkins, L.Casboult, A.Davies, S.Flanders

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers

The Swans went toe to toe with Collingwood at the MCG for large periods of last week’s Sunday afternoon blockbuster, but were ultimately overrun in the final quarter by a team which seemingly does that to their opposition every week. That made it three losses in a row, and though one of those was by just a point and last week was closer than the final score appeared, the reigning Premiers will be pretty keen to get back on the winners’ list sooner rather than later. Given the way the Dockers have played for much of this year, this looms as a great opportunity to do just that. Fremantle have struggled immensely this year, though they were handed an easy kill in the form of the Hawks in Perth last weekend and took full advantage with a thumping 69-point win. Maybe, just maybe, that will be the result they needed to finally begin working their way back towards something vaguely resembling the side which won 15 games last year. That team would have a good chance of keeping this game close, but it’s hard to trust the 2023 incarnation of the Dockers just yet. Sydney have certainly not been at their best of late, but they should be able to snag their fourth win of the season this weekend.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Swans to win$1.29
Swans 1-39$2.00
Over 166.5 total match points$1.87

Predicted Squads

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: R.Fox, T.McCartin, N.Blakey HB: O.Florent, J.Lloyd, H.Cunningham C: E.Gulden, C.Mills - C, J.Rowbottom HF: W.Hayward, L.McDonald, R.Clark F: T.Papley, L.Franklin, I.Heeney FOLL: T. Hickey, L.Parker, Ch.Warner I/C: B.Campbell, H.McLean, J.McInerney, D. Stephens

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce, H.Young HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Clark C: J.Aish, C.Serong, M.Frederick HF: M.Walters, L.Jackson, B.Banfield F: S.Switkowski, J.Amiss, L.Schultz FOLL: S.Darcy, A.Brayshaw, J.O’Meara I/C: J.Treacy, N. Fyfe, N.Erasmus, E.Hughes

  • Five of the Dockers last six games have been over the 165.5 total match points set for their matchup with Sydney, with the only exception being the 165 points scored in last match. The Swans, meanwhile, have had that total surpassed in three of their last four games.
  • The Eagles have lost six games in a row by 40 or more points.
  • The Saints last four games have seen less than 160 points scored. 

Multi of the Week

Over 165.5 total match points Dockers vs. Swans$1.90
Suns 40+$3.00
Under 161.5 total match points Crows vs. Saints$1.90
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North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power

The Kangaroos and the Power head to Tasmania this weekend for the first game on the Apple Isle since it was announced that they’ve been granted a license for the 19th team in the AFL. The Roos will be looking to break what is now a six-game losing streak after they won their first two games of the season, but based on their performances over the last few weeks that doesn’t look particularly likely. They haven’t got close to anybody for over a month and have averaged just six goals in their past three weeks, so against a Power team which is increasingly looking likely to be a finals if not top four team, it’s hard to imagine the Kangaroos ending their losing streak this weekend. Port have won five in a row to move to 6-2, and though a percentage of just over 100 suggests they haven’t been as impressive as their record suggests, they’ve consistently been able to get the job done in pressure situations. Against North Melbourne, they probably won’t find themselves in another tight, late-game situation. This should be an easy win for the Power in a scrappy, relatively low-scoring game.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power to win$1.17
Power 1-39$2.10
Under 166.5 total match points$1.87

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne KangaroosNorth Melbourne Kangaroos: B: G.Logue, B.McKay, A.Corr HB: L.McDonald, B.Drury, F.Perez C: B.Scott, B.Cunnington, D.Tucker HF: H.Sheezel, J.Simpkin, J.Stephenson F: C.Zurhaar, N.Larkey, J.Ziebell FOLL: T.Goldstein, L.Davies-Uniacke, C.Taylor I/C: L.Shiels, M.Bergman, C. Coleman-Jones, J.Mahony

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: D.Houston, T.McKenzie, T.Jonas HB: D.Byrne-Jones, A.Aliir, R.Burton C: M.Bergman, T.Boak, R.Bonner HF: J.Finlayson, C.Dixon, C.Rozee F: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: B.Teakle, O.Wines, J.Horne-Francis I/C: D.Williams, W.Drew, J.McEntee, K. Farrell

Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons

It’s been a rough season so far for the Hawks, and it doesn’t look like getting any easier this Saturday. They’re sitting at 1-7 and on the bottom of the ladder, and after a couple of tight losses were once again uncompetitive last weekend when going down by 69 points to a Dockers team which had previously been struggling. If Freo could beat them that easily, that doesn’t bode particularly well for them up against the Dees. Melbourne have lost just two games this year and find themselves at 6-2 and with the best percentage in the league, and though they haven’t been at their absolute best week in week out they have, for the most part, still been able to find a way to get the job done. Last week they just crept over the line against the Suns, but the week prior they systematically dismantled the Kangaroos like they were a team of schoolchildren. The Hawks may well be on the receiving end of some similar treatment this Saturday afternoon. The Dees should have no problems winning this one by a big margin. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons to win$1.09
Demons 60+$3.50
Demons -41.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

HawthornHawthorn Hawks: B: C. Jiath, J.Sicily, S.Frost HB: W.Day, B.Hardwick, J.Impey C: Player K.Amon, J.Worpel, H.Morrison HF: L. Breust, F.Greene, D.Moore F: M.Lewis, L.Meek, C.Wingard FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Ward, J.Newcombe I/C: S.Mitchell, C.Nash, J.Scrimshaw, C.Mackenzie

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: J.Lever, S.May, T.Rivers HB: J.Bowey, H.Petty, M.Hibberd C: J.Jordon, C.Oliver, L.Hunter HF: E.Langdon, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow F: K.Chandler, B.Grundy, K.Pickett FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, J.Viney I/C: B. Brown, A.Brayshaw, A.Neal-Bullen, J.McVee

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers

The Lions have long been a fixture in the top parts of the AFL ladder, but the 2023 incarnation of the team is looking as dangerous as they have for a long time. They’ve won five games in a row to take their record to 6-2, and over that period no team has got closer than 21 points to them. Their 26-point defeat of the Blues last Friday night was more comprehensive than the margin appeared, with new recruit Josh Dunkley putting in an absolute dominant display in the victory. They’ve been particularly impressive at the Gabba, where they’ve beaten a couple of Premiership favourites already, and though the Bombers are improved this year they don’t exactly fit into that category. They’ve lost three in a row to drop out of the eight, though in fairness that’s not a true reflection of how they’ve been playing; those defeats have been to Collingwood, Geelong, and Port Adelaide in Adelaide, and the first and last of them they could easily have won. They appear to be a much improved side this year under Brad Scott and should be able to keep this relatively competitive, but the Lions should be too good on their home turf.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions to win$1.25
Lions 1-39$2.05
Under 184.5$1.84

Predicted Squads

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, J.Payne, K.Coleman HB: C.McKenna, H.Andrews, R.Lester C: J.Berry, Z.Bailey, H.McCluggage HF: C.Cameron, J.Gunston, W.Ashcroft F: L.McCarthy, J.Daniher, E.Hipwood FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale I/C: C.Rayner, H.Sharp, N.Answerth, D.Wilmot

Essendon BombersEssendon Bombers: B: J.Kelly, B.Zerk-Thatcher, M.Redman HB: A.McGrath, D. Heppell, K.Langford C: D.Shiel, D.Parish, N.Martin HF: B.Hobbs, S.Weideman, J.Caldwell F: A.Davey Jnr, J.Stringer, A.McDonald-Tipungwuti FOLL: S.Draper, Z.Merrett, W.Setterfield I/C: A.Perkins, S. Durham, M. D’Ambrosio, A.Phillips

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Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs

The Blues continued to fail to live up to their expectations last week, notching up a third loss in four weeks in a season which is quickly losing the promise it held early on. Of course, there is plenty of time to turn things around and for a team with as many elite players on the park as them, the prospect of a drastic improvement in form never seems far away. However, they are consistently failing to find that improvement, and need to find a way to capitalise on their top-end talent sooner rather than later. This is an intriguing match-up for them against a side which looks likely to be hovering around a similar part of the ladder as them throughout this year in the Bulldogs. The Dogs haven’t set the world on fire but they have won four of their last five to take their record to 5-3. The midfield battle in this game will be one to behold between two sides whose mids can rack up possessions like few else. The Blues’ twin towers of Curnow and McKay offer a clear point of difference for the Blues, and against an average Bulldogs defence should be able to cause a lot of damage if the ball gets in there enough. The form guide is pointing in the Doggies favour here, but on paper this just looks like a game that the Blues should be winning.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues/Blues half-time/full-time$2.45
Blues 1-39$2.45
Blues to win$1.87

Predicted Squads

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: S.Docherty, Le.Young, N.Newman HB: M.McGovern, J.Weitering, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps, E.Curnow HF: S.Walsh, H.McKay, J.Silvagni F: C.Durdin, C.Curnow, J.Motlop FOLL: M.Pittonet, A.Cerra, G.Hewett I/C: B.Kemp, A.Cincotta, O.Hollands, M. Kennedy

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, L.Jones, R.Gardner HB: B.Dale, A.Keath, E.Richards C: O.Baker, M.Bontempelli, B.Williams HF: B.Smith, J.Ugle-Hagan, C.Weightman F: A.Jones, A.Naughton, R.Lobb FOLL: T.English, J.Macrae, T. Liberatore I/C: J.Johannisen, C.Daniel, A.Scott, L. McNeil

Adelaide Crows vs St. Kilda Saints

What an intriguing battle Sunday’s first fixture looks like being. Both the Crows and in particular the Saints have shown dramatic improvement this year, the former sitting at 4-4 and the latter at 6-2. Adelaide have lost their past two, but the first of those was a heartbreaking one-point loss to the Magpies – nothing to be too ashamed of – and the second a relatively competitive loss to the Cats in Geelong. The Saints, meanwhile, have slowed a little after their early season form but are still one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league under Ross Lyon, and have won two of their last three. Last week wasn’t exactly anything to write home about – a low-scoring 30-point defeat of the Kangaroos – but that was illustrative of how they have played so far this year. Nothing comes easy for St. Kilda’s opponents in 2023, so don’t expect Adelaide to be booting a mammoth score this weekend. This will likely be a relatively low-scoring game, as virtually every Saints game has been this year, and it’s easy to see it coming down to the wire. But while St. Kilda has been the more impressive so far in 2023, they are waning slightly on their early season form, and the Crows can take advantage with a tight win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Crows to win$1.65
Under 161.5$1.89
Crows -6.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: T.Doedee, N.Murray, M.Michalanney HB: B.Smith, J. Worrell, M.Hinge     C: J.Soligo, J.Dawson, R.Sloane HF: I.Rankine, C.Jones, L. Pedlar F: T.Walker, D.Fogarty, R.Thilthorpe FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: L.Murphy, M. Crouch, L.Sholl, W.Milera

St. Kilda SaintsSt. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: L.Stocker, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, S.Ross, R.Byrnes HF: M.Owens, M. King, J.Higgins F: M.Phillipou, T.Membrey, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, J.Steele  I/C: .Clark, B. Hill, B.Paton, C.Sharman

Collingwood Magpies vs GWS Giants

The Magpies just keep winning, with their ability to overrun teams in the final quarter now largely responsible for three consecutive victories after they put the Swans to the sword in the final term of last Sunday’s matchup. That win kept them clear on top of the ladder with a 7-1 record, and they’ll be confident in their ability to remain there with another Sunday clash at the MCG, this time against Sydney’s other team. The Giants have been okay without being spectacular so far this season, alternating wins and losses for the past five weeks. Having gone down by 15 points to the Bulldogs last week, it looks like that trend might end this weekend. They’ve been very competitive all year, and over the past six weeks the biggest margin – win or loss – in one of their games has been 21 points – that’s despite playing games against the Lions, Bombers, Blues and Swans. They won’t likely be completely blown out of the water by the Magpies, but it’s hard to envision them winning either,.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.15
GWS/Collingwood half-time/full-time leader$7.00
Magpies to win the second half by 20+ points$2.08

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: I.Quaynor, D.Moore, B.Maynard HB: S.Pendlebury, N.Murphy, B.Frampton C: J.Noble, J.De Goey, J.Daicos HF: S.Sidebottom, B.Mihocek, J.Elliott F: W.Hoskin-Elliott, A.Johnson, N.Daicos FOLL: M.Cox, T.Adams, T.Mitchell I/C: B.Hill, J.Crisp, B.McCreery, J. Ginnivan

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: I.Cumming, C.Idun, C.Brown HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash C: F.Callaghan, J.Kelly, C. Ward HF: B.Daniels, H.Himmelberg, J. Riccardi F: T.Greene, J.Hogan, T.Bedford FOLL: M.Flynn, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: H.Perryman, A.Cadman, N.Haynes, X.O’Halloran

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