State of Origin 2023– Betting tips & Predictions

James Salmon
State of Origin Predictions
State of Origin 2023

The State of Origin is one of the most highly anticipated events on the Australian sporting calendar, pitting New South Wales against Queensland over an historic three-game series which brings together the best of the best in the world of rugby league. On this page, we’ll take a look at all the fixtures before taking a deep dive into Game 2, which is set to kick off on Wednesday, the 21st of June.

State of Origin Series

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Queensland vs NSWWednesday May 31 at 8.05pm, Adelaide Oval$2.20$1.67
Queensland vs NSWWednesday June 21 at 8.05pm, Suncorp Stadium$1.45$2.80
NSW vs QueenslandWednesday July 12 at 8.05pm, Stadium AustraliaN/AN/A

Queensland vs NSW Game 3

Well well well. The Maroons have done it again. Once again, they entered a State of Origin series as the underdog, with the undeniable talent of the Blues expected to win out – albeit that wasn’t exactly a global view. The majority who did feel that way, however, have been proven wrong once again by the Queenslanders, who have not just secured the series, but done it comfortably in just two games. The first was at least a little tighter, with the Maroons winning by eight points, with two tries in the last seven minutes giving them that win. Once they’d picked up the points in the neutral game, however, they never looked back, and on returning to Suncorp Stadium in Game 2 they were absolutely dominant, winning 32-6 to lock up the shield for the second straight year.

That’s great news for Maroons fans, but not so for everyone else, the Blues for obvious reasons and neutrals because it robs us of a series deciding Game 3. Still, though the series may already be wrapped up, to call this a dead rubber does a disservice to how badly the Blues will want to avoid a series sweep, and how badly the Maroons will want to hand one out. That’s not to compare it to the ferocity this game would have if the series were locked at one game apiece – it won’t be close – but it’s not as though there’s nothing at all on the line.

The Blues have been thoroughly outplayed this series, there’s no doubt about it, and they would have been flattened by their inability to even compete in Game 2 up in Queensland. This time around, however, they’ll get the home crowd behind them, and they’ll be eager to make it count to avoid a whitewash. 

There’ll be some changes, too, aside from where the game is being played. The Blues are unsurprisingly swinging quite a few changes, with Bradman Best and Keaon Koloamatangi coming in for their first ever Origin games and each of Cody Walker, Clint Gutherson, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Jacob Saifiti also rejoining the fold. Payne Haas and Tom Trbojevic will be significant outs, while each of Jarome Luai, Hudson Young, Stefano Utoikamanu, Junior Paulo and Tyson Frizell have been axed by coach Brad Fittler. The Maroons, as you would expect, are a little more settled; Reece Walsh will be replaced by AJ Brimson after he was suspended, while Corey Horsburgh will make his debut in place of Thomas Flegler.

So who wins? It’s really hard to ignore what the Maroons did last game, but the Blues clearly have something to prove and have a whole new side expected to do it. What’s more, the history is mighty hard to ignore; the last time there was a clean sweep was way back in 2010, while the time before that was in 2000. Plenty of those series that have ended 2-1 were wrapped up inside two games, so clearly it’s hard to come out and do it again with the series already won. With that in mind, the Blues can save a bit of face and eke out a win in front of their home crowd in Game 3.  

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
New South Wales to win$2.25
Boombet reviewOver 41.5 total match points$1.91
Midasbet logoNew South Wales +3.5$1.95

Predicted Squads

Queensland Maroons: 1. AJ Brimson2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes  4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita  12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ben Hunt 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Moeaki Fotuaika 17. Corey Horsburgh 18. Tom Deardon 19. J’Maine Hopgood

NSW Blues: 1. James Tedesco (c) 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichto 4. Bradman Best 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cody Walker 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Damien Cook 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Liam Marti 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 13. Cameron Murray 14. Isaah Yeo 15. Jacob Saifiiti 16. Reece Robson 17. Clinton Gutherson 18. Scott Drinkwater 19. Spencer Leniu

Queensland vs NSW Game 2

The neutral leg of the 2023 State of Origin is done and dusted, and once again it was the Maroons who were able to prove the bookmakers wrong and record a 26-18 victory. Time and time again, they demonstrate the ability to go into the series with a team which looks inferior to their New South Wales counterpart on paper, but win anyway. Unfortunately Selwyn Cobbo will miss Game 2 after scoring two tries in the first, while Tom Gilbert and Jai Arrow will also miss. But they’re not the only side with injury concerns; the Blues will be without a number of key players through injury, with Nathan Cleary and Api Koroisau set to miss multiple weeks and Cameron Murray also with a question mark over his head due to a groin complaint.

So – what can we expect in Game 2? With the Maroons leading 1-0, they have a great chance to wrap it up at a venue in which they are incredibly hard to beat. Of the last ten Origin games played at Suncorp Stadium, the Blues have won just two, which won’t exactly inspire confidence in New South Wales fans. Having said that, the Blues did win here 26-0 just two years ago, and have shown an incredible penchant for Game 2, winning the last five of them – only two of which were played in Sydney. The last four of those, they’ve won by an extraordinary average of 28.5 points, three of which came after the Maroons won Game 1.

They have shown a strong ability to bounce back after disappointing results in Game 1 in recent years, but their form at Suncorp Stadium as well as their showing in Game 1 this year means they enter this game as relatively comfortable underdogs. But for all that the Maroons did right in that series opener, the Blues certainly weren’t without their chances, and won the run metres by a fairly hefty margin. The superior talent which most believed they had entering the series has been hit in part by injuries, but the fact remains that they have a whole lot of ability on the park. The Maroons certainly deserve to be favourites, but there is reason to believe that the Blues can come away from Suncorp Stadium with the points and give themselves a chance to win the series on their home turf in Game 3. This could go either way, but the Blues certainly look like the value selection in this one. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
New South Wales to win$2.80
Boombet reviewNew South Wales +6.5$1.87
Midasbet logoOver 37.5 total match points$1.91

Predicted Squads

Queensland Maroons: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Ben Hunt  10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita   12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Harry Grant 15. Tom Flegler 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Moeaki Fotuaika

Reserves: AJ Brimson, Corey Horsburgh

NSW Blues: 1. James Tedesco (c) 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Junior Paulo 9. Damien Cook 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Stefano Utoikamanu   15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Reece Robson

Reserves: Matt Burton, Keaon Koloamatangi

Queensland vs NSW Game 1

At long last, State of Origin is here. It kicks off next Wednesday night at Adelaide Oval, with the all-important neutral clash from which the winner needs only win on their own home turf to claim the series. Queensland enters the series as last year’s winner, with new coach Billy Slater having led his underdog side to a 2-1 victory, putting a whole lot of pressure on NSW coach Brad Fittler, whose side has now lost two of the last three Origin series after being predicted to dominate this period.

NSW will, however, have a couple of big names back who missed last year’s series in Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell. All is not, however, sunshine and rainbows for the Blues, with a number of their players not exactly in peak form in the NRL so far this year. Hudson Young is not one of them, with the Raider joining the NSW team on the back of some terrific form for Canberra, while Tevita Pangai Jr was another relatively surprising selection.

Queensland again enter as underdogs despite the fact that they will boast much the same team as last year, but as they’ve shown in recent years, that doesn’t always mean a whole lot. Felise Kaufusi is one who will miss out on Game 1 as he continues to serve a suspension, while David Fifita returns to the side. Otherwise, expect the likes of Cameron Munster, Ben Hunt and Daly Cherry-Evans to again play a pivotal role in the fortunes of the Maroons.

There are a lot of similarities this year to last, with NSW again heading into Game 1 and the series moreover as favourites and with a team that, on paper, looks like it should be able to get the job done. But we’ve seen this movie before. In a three-game series, clearly every match is massive, but with this the only neutral game it’s very possible that it’s the one that determines the series winner. This is an intriguing battle and either team could very easily walk away with the win, but at longer odds, Queensland look like posing decent value once again in Game 1 of the 2023 State of Origin series.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Queensland to win$2.20
Boombet reviewQueensland +2.5$1.88
Midasbet logoUnder 36.5 total points$1.88

Predicted Squads

Queensland Maroons: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Tom Flegler 9. Ben Hunt  10. Lindsay Collins 11. Tom Gilbert  12. David Fifita 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Harry Grant 15. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Jai Arrow

Reserves: Tom Dearden, Christian Welch

NSW Blues: 1. James Tedesco 2. Josh Addo-Carr 3. Tom Trbojevic 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Brian To'o 6.Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Api Koroisau 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Junior Paulo 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Nicho Hynes

Reserves: Stephen Crichton, Stefano Utoikamanu, Blayke Brailey

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